Lions mailbag: Should Detroit’s defense blitz less in 2024?

The Detroit Lions have Wednesday off as they prepare for their preseason opener against the New York Giants. So I thought this was a good opportunity to open up our mailbag—but with a twist.

Yes, myself and Erik Schlitt did a Midweek Mailbag podcast on Tuesday night, but I thought for those that don’t love the audio format, we could pair it with a written mailbag for double the Lions content. If you want the audio portion of the mailbag, head to the bottom of the page here. But let’s start with the written portion of the mailbag.

I certainly think patience has a lot to do with it. The Lions notably have every single Brad Holmes draft pick still on their roster with the lone exception being Chase Lucas, the team’s seventh-round selection in 2022. Dan Campbell has spoken at length about the importance of reps in development, and how some players develop at different rates than others.

However, it’s also worth pointing out that the Lions’ roster was in such a bad shape in the early Holmes years, that it allowed them to carry all of these players. It’s going to be harder and harder to hold onto a long-term project when the roster is so stacked. Just look at someone like Starling Thomas last year.

That said, with draft picks invested in Brodric Martin, Giovanni Manu, and Hendon Hooker, it’s clear long-term development will still be part of this team’s makeup. They’ll just have to be more selective moving forward.

During a normal practice, Penei Sewell is taking all of his reps at the right side. But any time Taylor Decker is dealing with an injury or taking a break, Sewell is the first to move over there. Last week, for example, the entire starting offensive line had a day off—except Sewell. And where did he rep? Left tackle.

For the first question, Campbell notably said that guys “we know we’re going to count on” will be held out. Add to that any players dealing with minor nagging injuries, and you’re probably only left with a handful of starters.

Looking back at last year’s preseason game snap counts as a reference, I wouldn’t expect to see any starters on offense out there, except maybe a brief Jameson Williams appearance given his relative lack of reps. Defensively, it’s a little different. There’s so much youth on that side of the ball that Campbell will likely want to get some play out of them. Certainly Brodric Martin, Terrion Arnold (if healthy), Ennis Rakestraw, and maaaaaaybe Jack Campbell should be out there. But I won’t expect anyone else considered a starter, although Levi Onwuzurike could get a series or two.

As for the Williams confidence scale, I’m a believer. I truly think he’s turned a corner and should be a productive member of the team. There will be lapses here and there, but the frequency in which those errors are happening as compared to last year is a transformational difference. I think an 800-yard season is very much within reach.

Oh man, we recorded a whole two-hour long #LONGSNAPPERWATCH2024 podcast and unfortunately it got corrupted and we couldn’t upload it.

In all seriousness, I can’t say I’ve paid a ton of attention to the long snapper battle, but I will say that every time I’ve taken notes on it, Scott Daly has been the first to rep ahead of Hogan Hatten.

Seeing as Eminem dips into the era of the Lions franchise at its worst, you must have a masochistic mindset to ask this question. But it’s fun and easily researchable, so I’ll oblige:

• Infinite (1996): 5-11
• The Slim Shady LP (1999): 8-8
• The Marshall Mathers LP (2000): 9-7
• The Eminem Show (2002): 3-13
• Encore (2004): 6-10
• Relapse (2009): 2-14
• Recovery (2010); 6-10
• The Marshall Mathers LP 2 (2013): 7-9
• Revival (2017): 9-7
• Kamikaze (2018): 6-10
• Music to be Murdered By (2020): 5-11
• The Death of Slim Shady (2024): TBD

That’s a total record of 66-110, or a .375 win percentage. So... let’s hope the Lions buck that trend.

This is a really interesting question. Here’s what Tim is referencing with Sharp’s statements:

While these numbers are certainly compelling and likely merit some deeper diving, I think we may be caught here in a correlation/causation fallacy.

The Lions pass defense ranked ninth in dropback EPA over the first six games of the season, where they were notably less aggressive in their blitz packages. But why were they not blitzing? Because they didn’t have to (or didn’t want to). In Week 1, they knew blitzing Patrick Mahomes was asking for trouble. Then they faced a slew of opponents who had big offensive question marks: Seahawks, Falcons, Packers (Love’s fifth career start), Panthers, Buccaneers.

From Weeks 1-6, the Lions ranked 22nd in blitzes. In Weeks 7-18, they ranked seventh. But in the back half of that season, they also faced some of the best passing offenses in the NFL: Ravens, Vikings (x2), Rams, Chargers, Packers, Cowboys. The Lions raised their blitz percentage because they knew they had their hands full, and, yeah, their pass defense was really bad during that stretch. But was it because they blitzed more or was it because they were going up against better offenses?

The Lions also held up well early because that’s when they were healthiest. By the end of the season, the Lions were scrambling to find a cornerback opposite Cam Sutton, and they were forced to put an inexperienced Ifeatu Melifonwu out at safety. They also had lost James Houston to injury and were cycling through players to find someone to rush opposite Aidan Hutchinson.

All of this is to say that I think it’s a huge leap in logic to say that the Lions would have been way more successful last year if they had cut out the blitzing. It ignores several other statistical factors and largely ignores the why of Detroit’s sudden blitzing increase.

Now, what does that mean for 2024? Well, if you ask anyone on defense, Detroit actually believes their identity toward the end of season was more in line of what they want to be. And while that may seem crazy given how much yardage they gave up, it’s also worth pointing out that Detroit’s disruption numbers went way up with the increased aggression. In the six-game span heading into the NFC Championship Game, the Lions ranked third in sacks (19) and tied for first in interceptions (nine).

Now with a more physical and sticky secondary, I believe the Lions will hold with this aggressive mindset. They have more trust in their secondary to hold up their end of the bargain after all of the offseason investments there. And while Detroit should be able to generate more pass rush with guys like DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, and Marcus Davenport, ultimately I think Aaron Glenn will not let this team get overly passive.

I’ll leave you with this quote from Glenn earlier this offseason:

“I like to smother the offense. I like to blitz, I like to get after the offense. Listen, I’m not sitting here saying we are going to blitz every time, it’s just a part of what we do, it’s a part our personality and then also a part of the guys we have.”

Here’s the podcast mailbag, which features topics like:

• Emmanuel Moseley injury fallout
• Is Brian Branch moving to safety actually a good idea?
• Is the good of joint practices being negated by the fights and injuries?
• WR3 spot
• What’s going on with Josh Paschal?
• How will new kickoff rule impact roster makeup?