Lions vs. Bears bold prediction: Defense stuffs Chicago ground game

The Chicago Bears are a mess. If you thought they looked bad on Thanksgiving, I promise it’s even worse. Since they fired head coach Matt Eberflus, the team looks lost and lifeless. In fairness, we can’t say the Detroit Lions are all sunshine and rainbows. Their unfortunate injury luck continues to relegate their best players to injured reserve, with the latest hit coming at the expense of their run defense. However, that’s exactly where the Bears are struggling the most right now. Can the Lions capitalize?

Bold prediction of the week: Lions hold Bears to <75 rushing yards

The last time these two teams played, the Lions held the Bears to 79 rushing yards, with half of that production coming from quarterback Caleb Williams. It was largely a byproduct of the score, as the Lions took a commanding early lead and the Bears abandoned any semblance of an intentional run game.

That trend continued into the next week. The Bears fell flat against the 49ers, losing 38-13, they rushed for a total of 68 yards. Just 41 of those yards came from running backs. The Bears found more success last week, racking up 113 rushing yards against the Minnesota Vikings en route to a 30-12 loss.

As the Bears game plan for this weekend’s matchup against the Lions, they have to focus on the interior of the Lions’ defensive line. Alim McNeill is out for the year with a torn ACL, and he has been the most effective of the Lions’ dedicated run-stuffers. DJ Reader missed Week 14 against the Packers, but McNeill plugged the interior and held the Packers offense to 4.1 yards per carry. When McNeill left mid-game in Week 15, Reader finished with a blank stat sheet while the Bills rushed for 5.8 yards per carry.

There may be a way for the Lions to shut down the Bears’ run game, though. For starters, Detroit should return Trevor Nowaske to the starting lineup this week after he missed Week 15 with a concussion. Nowaske is one of the Lions’ best edge-setters and was sorely missed as the Bills ran over the Lions last week.

In addition, the Lions should be better suited to focus their linebackers on run defense. The Lions’ depleted linebackers unit was ill-suited to handle Bills RB Ty Johnson last week and had to juggle Johnson’s vertical speed in the passing game with their usual run-fitting duties. D’Andre Swift doesn’t pose that same threat, so things should slow down for the Lions defense.

The Bears are going to have their eyes set squarely on the interior of the Lions defense. Having lost Alim McNeill and Malcolm Rodriguez since the last time these two teams played, the Lions run defense isn’t looking as stout. However, the Lions benefit from Trevor Nowaske’s return to health and a much more favorable matchup against the Bears offense. If the Lions play their cards right, they can have an even stronger performance in run defense than they did on Thanksgiving despite their losses and keep the Bears under 75 rushing yards on the day.